Asia – Macro Catalysts: China Trade and Inflation; RBI on Hold; Indonesia and Philippines‘s 2Q GDP

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July 31, 2026 04:05 PM GMT

Asia/Pacific Weekly Preview | Asia Pacific

Morgan Stanley Asia (Singapore) Pte.+

Derrick Y Kam

Asia Economist

Asia – Macro Catalysts: China

Trade and Inflation; RBI on Hold;

Indonesia and Philippines's 2Q

GDP

Morgan Stanley Asia Limited+

Robin Xing

Chief China Economist

Morgan Stanley MUFG Securities Co., Ltd.+

Takeshi Yamaguchi

Chief Japan Economist

Morgan Stanley India Company Private Limited+

We expect China's exports growth to remain strong but CPI may

moderate. We expect RBI to stay on hold and remain data

dependent. Indonesia and Philippines's 2Q GDP is likely to

moderate to 5.1% and 2.5%, respectively.

Upasana Chachra

Chief India Economist

Morgan Stanley Asia Limited+

Kathleen Oh

Chief Korea/Taiwan Economist

Key Takeaways

We provide a list of macro catalysts across Asia for August 3-9.

Morgan Stanley Australia Limited+

Chris Read

Equity Strategist and Australia Economist

We expect China's exports growth to remain strong at 22% YoY, supported by

continued strength in tech and green exports. Its July CPI may moderate to 0.8%

Morgan Stanley Asia Limited+

YoY.

Jonathan Cheung

Economist

RBI to hold rate steady at 5.25%, and maintain a neutral stance as it remains in a

"wait & watch mode" to assess the incoming domestic growth-inflation data.

Kelly Wang

Economist

We expect 2Q26 GDP growth in Indonesia to decelerate to 5.1% YoY, as external

demand poses a drag.

Morgan Stanley India Company Private Limited+

We expect growth in Philippines to slow further to 2.5% YoY in 2Q26, as the

effects of the energy price shock filtered through to the real economy.

Sudhanshu Agarwal

Economist

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