Risk Reward Update: Centuria Office REIT | Asia Pacific

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M

Update

July 31, 2026 04:00 PM GMT

Morgan Stanley Australia Limited+

Centuria Office REIT | Asia Pacific

Lauren A Berry

Equity Analyst

Risk Reward Update

What’s Changed

Centuria Office REIT (COF.AX)

From

To

Price Target

A$1.00

A$0.98

Base Case

A$1.21

A$1.07

Updated Components

Centuria Office REIT (COF.AX, COF AU)

FFO

Australia Property | Australia

Investment Thesis

Stock Rating

Industry View

Price target

Shr price, close (Jul 30, 2026)

52-Week Range

Bull Base Bear Scenarios

Risk Reward for Centuria Office REIT (COF.AX) has been

updated

Reason for change

We have updated our COF estimates ahead of the company's FY26 results to better

reflect our view on office occupancy and risks around leasing progress over the

Fiscal Year Ending

EPS (A$)**

Prior EPS (A$)**

Underweight

In-Line

A$0.98

A$0.92

A$1.32-0.87

06/25 06/26e 06/27e 06/28e

0.12

0.11

0.12

0.13

Unless otherwise noted, all metrics are based on Morgan Stanley ModelWare

framework

** = Based on consensus methodology

e = Morgan Stanley Research estimates

coming years. We have: (i) lowered our 2H26 occupancy estimate to 90% (was 92%)

to align with COF's latest reported occupancy (as of May '26), and (ii) also assumed

slower lease-up in future years. Our terminal year occupancy is now 91%, vs our

previous 94% estimate.

Following these changes, we forecast FY26 EPS of 11.2c (unchanged), at the

midpoint of COF’s latest 11.1-11.3c guidance range. Our FY27 EPS forecast is c.4%

lower to 11.4c (was 11.9c), and our FY28 EPS forecast is c.8% lower to 11.8c (was

12.9c), driven by our more conservative leasing assumptions (occupancy at 90-91%,

vs previous forecast of 93-94% by FY28).

We lower our base case 14c to A$1.07 on the back of our lower earnings estimates.

Our bull and bear cases are unchanged. As a result, we lower our weighted PT by 2c

to A$0.98/share (was A$1.00) taking into account our lower free cash forecasts.

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investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of

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