Risk Reward Update

First-page research excerpt

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M

Update

July 31, 2026 03:56 PM GMT

Morgan Stanley Australia Limited+

Origin Energy Ltd. | Asia Pacific

Rob Koh

Equity Analyst

Risk Reward Update

What’s Changed

Origin Energy Ltd. (ORG.AX)

From

To

Bull Case

A$15.04

A$15.40

Bear Case

A$7.01

A$7.13

Updated Components

Origin Energy Ltd. (ORG.AX, ORG AU)

EPS

Australia Utilities & Infrastructure | Australia

Investment Thesis

Stock Rating

Industry View

Price target

Shr price, close (Jul 31, 2026)

52-Week Range

Bull Base Bear Scenarios

Risk Reward for Origin Energy Ltd. (ORG.AX) has been updated

Reason for change

We keep our ORG price target unchanged at A$10.35/share after incorporating:

• ORG's 4QFY26 quarterly update on 31 July 2026, including FY27 APLNG

production guidance of 625-670PJ (MSe 653PJ), Energy Market volumes, and

Fiscal Year Ending

EPS (A$)**

Prior EPS (A$)**

Underweight

In-Line

A$10.35

A$10.76

A$13.13-10.02

06/25 06/26e 06/27e 06/28e

0.86

0.63

0.69

0.61

0.70

0.47

0.53

Unless otherwise noted, all metrics are based on Morgan Stanley ModelWare

framework

** = Based on consensus methodology

e = Morgan Stanley Research estimates

Kraken customer numbers and ITDA adjustments;

• A regular mark-to-market for commodity prices, discount rates, and rolling

forward our running NPV from 2 July to 31 July 2026.

We increase our bull and bear case values by 2% each, on the commodity price

mark-to-market (higher oil prices).

EPS changes:

• FY26e -8% on lower Octopus earnings and higher Octopus ITDA (non-cash);

• FY27e -13% on lower APLNG domestic gas revenues and higher Octopus

ITDA; and

• FY28 -11% on lower electricity margins, reflecting the move in the forward

curve since our last update..

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