Risk Reward Update

First-page research excerpt

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M

Update

July 31, 2026 03:56 PM GMT

Morgan Stanley & Co. International plc+

OTP Bank | Europe

Gulnara Saitkulova

Equity Analyst

Risk Reward Update

OTP Bank (OTPB.BU, OTP HB)

Top Pick

What’s Changed

OTP Bank (OTPB.BU)

From

To

Price Target

HUF 49,000.00

HUF 51,000.00

Bull Case

HUF 60,000.00

HUF 62,000.00

Base Case

HUF 49,000.00

HUF 51,000.00

Bear Case

HUF 35,000.00

HUF 36,000.00

Updated Components

EPS

Investment Thesis

Bull Base Bear Scenarios

Risks to Price Target / Rating

Risk Reward for OTP Bank (OTPB.BU) has been updated

Banks | Hungary

Stock Rating

Industry View

Price target

Shr price, close (Jul 31, 2026)

52-Week Range

Overweight

Attractive

HUF 51,000.00

HUF 46,820.00

HUF 46,980.0028,210.00

Fiscal Year Ending

12/25 12/26e 12/27e 12/28e

EPS (HUF)**

Prior EPS (HUF)**

4,455.74 4,768.87 5,290.67 5,767.62

- 4,969.51 5,376.53 5,783.29

Unless otherwise noted, all metrics are based on Morgan Stanley ModelWare

framework

** = Based on consensus methodology

e = Morgan Stanley Research estimates

Reason for change

We update our estimates ahead of the Q2 results. We now factor in higher loan loss

provisions in Q2, reflecting the amendments to the interest rate cap measures, as

well as slightly lower fee income in 2026. As a result, we reduce our 2026 earnings

forecast by 4%, while our estimates for the outer years remain broadly unchanged.

Following OTP's dividend payment in June, we deduct the 2025 dividend from our

valuation. At the same time, as Hungary continues to make progress towards

unlocking access to EU funds, we lower our Group CoE assumption from 13.5% to

13.0%.

Overall, these changes increase our price target to HUF 51,000 from HUF 49,000.

We reiterate our Overweight rating and maintain OTP as our Top Pick.

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companies covered in Morgan Stanley Research. As a result,

investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of

interest that could affect the objectivity of Morgan Stanley

Research. Investors should consider Morgan Stanley

Research as only a single factor in making their investment

decision.