Risk Reward Update

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M

Update

July 31, 2026 03:45 PM GMT

Morgan Stanley & Co. International plc+

Aviva | Europe

Alexa Psillos, FASSA

Equity Analyst

Risk Reward Update

Aviva (AV.L, AV/ LN)

What’s Changed

Insurance | United Kingdom

Aviva (AV.L)

From

To

Price Target

680p

690p

Base Case

680p

690p

Updated Components

EPS

Investment Thesis

Bull Base Bear Scenarios

Risks to Price Target / Rating

Investment Drivers

Stock Rating

Industry View

Price target

Shr price, close (Jul 30, 2026)

52-Week Range

Fiscal Year Ending

EPS (p)**

Prior EPS (p)**

Equal-weight

In-Line

690p

696p

701-591p

12/25 12/26e 12/27e 12/28e

55.3

61.5

61.8

67.4

67.7

74.3

Unless otherwise noted, all metrics are based on Morgan Stanley ModelWare

framework

** = Based on consensus methodology

e = Morgan Stanley Research estimates

Risk Reward for Aviva (AV.L) has been updated

Reason for change

Ahead of half-year results taking place on Friday, 14th August, we update our

estimates.

Our UK&I GI operating profit estimates push higher by c.2.5% over 2026-28, mainly

due to an increase in our investment return assumption to reflect interest rates

remaining elevated for longer. Our IWR operating profit estimates reduce by c.1%,

driven by lower IWR Other contribution (now using 2025 as our run-rate for 2026).

As a result of these two offsetting impacts, our estimates for group adjusted

operating profit (pre-tax) push higher by 0.5-1% over 2026-28, and our operating

EPS estimates remain broadly unchanged. Our PT also increases slightly from 680p

to 690p.

Elsewhere, we lower our GI GWP estimates by c.3%, reflecting more moderate

growth in UK and Canada Commercial top line, due to general softening in

commercial markets. We also allow for market movements impacts in our solvency

ratio estimates, lowering our 1H26 solvency ratio from 183% to 179%.

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investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of

interest that could affect the objectivity of Morgan Stanley

Research. Investors should consider Morgan Stanley

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