Komercni Banka as (BKOM.PR): Model Update

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31 Jul 2026 11:25:43 ET │ 14 pages

Komercni Banka as (BKOM.PR)

Model Update

CITI'S TAKE

Taking into account 2Q26 results and the updated guidance for FY2026

earnings (for details, see Komercni Banka as (BKOM.PR) - 2Q26 Earnings

Beat (Again) Driven by Net Provision Releases), we make small changes to

our earnings estimates (we increase our EPS estimate by +0.4% in 2026,

+0.6% in 2027, and +1.7% in 2028). We add also earnings estimates for

2029. We expect EPS to decline -4% this year (due to negative delta of net

provisions) and to increase +8% in 2027, +3% in 2028, and +5% in 2029

(driven by rising lending). Reflecting revised enrings estimates, we increase

our TP to CZK 1,062 from CZK 1,023 previously and maintain our Neutral

rating.

In 2Q26 presentation materials, the bank’s management maintained volume and

revenues FY2026 guidance but improved OPEX guidance to "Flattish" from "Lowsingle-digit growth" and CoR guidance to c.10bp from 10-20bp previously. Taking

into account 1H26 results and revised guidance, we lower our 2026 OPEX estimate

by -1% and now we expect OPEX to decline -0.6% yoy in 2026. We have previously

assumed 10bp COR in 2026, i.e., at the lower end of the previous guidance and

exactly at the currently guided level, so we leave this assumption unchanged. We

note a continuation of positive trends in consumer loans (after flat performance

from 2Q24 to 4Q25 they grew +3% qoq in 1Q26 and +3% qoq in 2Q26); however, we

note that despite an acceleration, the pace of growth in consumer loans broadly

matches the total loan growth rate and their share in total loans is broadly the same.

It hoped that the share of consumer loans in total loans will start to rise, what would

positively impact NIM, offsetting the negative impact of still high competition both

in deposits and mortgages. On the 2Q26 analyst call, the bank’s management noted

that TCR at the end of 2Q26 declined to 17.3%, i.e., below the bank’s 17.5% year-end

target. The management considers several options to optimise RWAs. In our model,

we assume RWA-to-loans ratio, which grew to 67% in 2Q26 from 66% a quarter ago

Neutral

Price (30 Jul 26 20:00)

Kc1,043.00

Target price

Kc1,062.00↑

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