Canada Economics Weekly: Stronger growth, for now

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31 Jul 2026 11:25:28 ET │ 11 pages

Canada Economics Weekly

Stronger growth, for now

CITI'S TAKE

GDP by industry rose a solid 0.3% in May and is on track to show a

substantial rebound in Q2 overall. But we remain cautious that recently

stronger growth led by the mining sector may not be sustained into the

second half of the year. Soft hours worked in monthly employment data

(which we expect to show a 10k decline in July) would also suggest slowing

activity within a few months. Our base case remains that subdued core

inflation and signs of softer activity in Q3 data will prompt another

downward revision to growth forecasts alongside a rate cut in October.

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Veronica Clark AC

With thanks to

Hanmu Zhang