ECI no longer slowing, led by pickup in benefits: U.S. Data Pulse | North America

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M

Update

July 31, 2026 03:12 PM GMT

U.S. Data Pulse | North America

Morgan Stanley & Co. LLC

Michael T Gapen

Chief US Economist

ECI no longer slowing, led by

pickup in benefits

Sam D Coffin

Economist

Diego Anzoategui

Economist

Key Takeaways

Arunima Sinha

Global Economist

ECI, +0.9% in the three months through June, has accelerated from late last year

and rose more than the 0.8% we forecasted.

Heather Berger

Economist

The 12-month pace has stalled: slowing last year but moving sideways since then.

Wages continued to moderate, but benefits picked up.

AHE is running faster than ECI private wages as employment shifts toward

Lingdi Xu

Economist

higher-paying jobs. By industry, faster ECI in info, retail, education.

With labor productivity rising as quickly as it is, the 3.4% y/y pace of total

compensation and 3.3% of private-sector compensation is not inflationary.

For the Fed, the stall in the 12-month pace after its earlier deceleration, echoes

other indicators of a stable labor market.