Risk Reward Update

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M

Update

July 31, 2026 03:13 PM GMT

Morgan Stanley & Co. LLC

Arch Capital Group Ltd. | North America

Bob Jian Huang

Equity Analyst

Risk Reward Update

Arch Capital Group Ltd. (ACGL.O, ACGL US)

What’s Changed

Insurance - Property & Casualty | Bermuda

Arch Capital Group Ltd. (ACGL.O)

From

To

Price Target

$110.00

$111.00

Bull Case

$135.00

$137.00

Base Case

$110.00

$111.00

Bear Case

$75.00

$74.00

Updated Components

EPS

Bull Base Bear Scenarios

Risk Reward for Arch Capital Group Ltd. (ACGL.O) has been

updated

Stock Rating

Industry View

Price target

Shr price, close (Jul 30, 2026)

52-Week Range

Fiscal Year Ending

EPS ($)**

Prior EPS ($)**

Overweight

Attractive

$111.00

$101.14

$107.09-82.45

12/25 12/26e 12/27e 12/28e

9.84

9.37

9.10

9.71

9.60

10.53

10.35

Unless otherwise noted, all metrics are based on Morgan Stanley ModelWare

framework

** = Based on consensus methodology

e = Morgan Stanley Research estimates

Reason for change

Based on latest 2Q26 results and management commentary from the earnings call,

we update our model by adjusting our 2026e/2027e EPS by ~3%/1% to $9.37/9.71.

We raise buyback forecasts for 2026e and slightly lower overall premium growth

estimates (flat/~(1)% for 2026e/2027e).

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