International Consolidated Airlines Group, S.A. (ICAG.L): IAG: Double Digit Margins Persisting, The Rest Is Noise

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31 Jul 2026 08:52:22 ET │ 16 pages

International Consolidated Airlines Group, S.A.

(ICAG.L)

IAG: Double Digit Margins Persisting, The Rest Is Noise

CITI'S TAKE

We see the key debate for IAG's shares as being whether the strong

margins seen in the post covid years (12-15% in FY23-25) are sustainable,

with its current 6.4x EV/EBIT for FY26 suggesting they are not. While the

current challenging geopolitical environment is unhelpful operationally,

we think it also provides a proof point of the business' resilience. Despite

jet fuel +90% year-to-date, we still expect margins to be 13% in FY26, 35ppt higher than targeted by peers in the medium term. Additionally,

despite entering an investment cycle from next year onward, the company

offers a unique cash return story within the industry with our base case

that they offer a 9% total cash return yield for FY27-29. Our minor

changes to estimates bring our price target down marginally to 600p

(from 610p), representing c40% upside.

Quick summary of estimate changes — Following 2Q26 results today we now

model €4.3bn EBIT for FY26E, a -6% reduction vs prior, with 2% lower revenue

partly offset by 2% lower fuel. Our revisions to EBIT for FY27-30E are also minor

(reduced by 2-4% vs prior estimates).

Buy

Price (31 Jul 26 12:34)

Target price

from £6.10

Expected share price return

Expected dividend yield

Expected total return

Market Cap

Conor DwyerAC

Rodrigo Campo

International Consolidated Airlines Group, S.A. (EUR)

Year to 31 Dec

2024A

2025A

2026E

2027E

2028E

Sales (€M)

32,100.0

33,213.0

33,826.5

34,211.1

35,392.2

Profit Before Tax (€M)

3,773.0

4,505.0

3,898.9

4,154.2

4,448.8

Diluted EPS (¢)

56.8

69.6

64.8

74.9

86.3

Diluted EPS (Old) (¢)

56.8

69.6

71.9

78.5

88.7

PE (x)

8.9

7.3

7.8

6.8

5.9

EV/EBITDA (x)

4.9

4.2

4.3

4.1

3.9

DPS (¢)

9.0

9.8

9.5

11.4

13.2

Net Div Yield (%)

1.8

1.9

2.3

2.6