UBS Group (UBSG.S): Model Update

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31 Jul 2026 09:36:23 ET │ 13 pages

UBS Group (UBSG.S)

Model Update

CITI'S TAKE

Post 2Q26 results we trim our 2026-28E EPS estimates by 1-3% reflecting

a weaker FRC and Advisory result in the Investment Bank than we

anticipated (we were already meaningfully above consensus on Equities

where UBS did deliver). Even with these revisions, we continue to be 6-9%

above consensus and it looks increasingly likely that the Swiss capital

legislation will be watered down post the parliamentary vote in August.

That said we would argue the stock is already fair value, trading on ~12x

fwd P/E and ~1.9x P/TB for a ~16% RoTE. We reiterate our Neutral rating

and SFr41.6 target price.

Neutral

Price (31 Jul 26 14:34)

SFr42.62

Target price

SFr41.60

Expected share price return

-2.4%

Expected dividend yield

2.9%

Expected total return

0.5%

Market Cap

SFr139,700M

US$173,530M

Andrew Coombs, CFAAC

UBS Group (USD)

Year to 31 Dec

2024A

2025A

2026E

2027E

2028E

Net Income ($M)

6,637.2

8,271.6

11,804.7

13,797.5

14,747.4

Diluted EPS ($)

1.98

2.51

3.70

4.47

4.96

Diluted EPS (Old) ($)

1.98

2.51

3.81

4.50

5.01

PE (x)

26.7

21.1

14.3

11.8

10.7

P/BV (x)

2.0

1.8

1.7

1.6

1.5

DPS ($)

0.90

1.10

1.25

1.40

1.50

Net Div Yield (%)

1.7

2.1

2.4

2.6

2.8

ROE (%)

5.9

8.9

12.4

14.9

15.1