Mahanagar Gas (MGAS.BO): Model Update

First-page research excerpt

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31 Jul 2026 09:37:32 ET │ 13 pages

Mahanagar Gas (MGAS.BO)

Model Update

CITI'S TAKE

Buy

Price (31 Jul 26 15:30)

Rs1,114.00

Target price

Rs1,290.00↓

from Rs1,400.00

Expected share price return

15.8%

Expected dividend yield

2.1%

Expected total return

17.9%

Market Cap

Rs110,038M

US$1,150M

We raise our FY27E EBITDA by 9% on better-than-expected margins and

volumes in 1Q, although we lower our longer-term margin assumption

that leads to a 13% cut in our FY29E EBITDA. We forecast a volume CAGR

of 7% over FY26-29E and EBITDA margins of Rs7-7.5/scm over this

period, which is below management’s target of Rs8+/scm. Our revised

target price stands at Rs1,290 vs. Rs1,400 earlier.

Saurabh HandaAC

Earnings Summary

Year to

Net Profit

Diluted EPS

EPS growth

P/E

P/B

ROE

Yield

31 Mar

(RsM)

(Rs)

(%)

(x)

(%)

2025A

10,413

105.41

-19.2

10.6

1.9

18.9

2.7

2026A

8,468

85.73

-18.7

13.0

1.7

13.8

2.7

2027E

6,788

68.72

-19.8

16.2

1.6

10.2

2.1

2028E

7,787

78.83

14.7

14.1

1.5

10.9

2.4

2029E

8,262

83.65

6.1

13.3

1.4

10.8

2.9

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