F3/27 1Q Results: Weak Sales Volumes in Key Markets

Research evidence excerpt

F3/27 1Q Results: Weak Sales Volumes in Key Markets

Update

July 31, 2026 11:26 AM GMT

Morgan Stanley MUFG Securities Co., Ltd.+MYakult Honsha (2267) | Japan Tomonobu Tsunoyama

Equity Analyst

F3/27 1Q Results: Weak Sales Tomonobu.Tsunoyama@morganstanleymufg.comSeki Li +81 3 6836-8936

Research Associate

Seki.Li@morganstanleymufg.com +81 3 6836-8934

Volumes in Key Markets Haruka Miyake

Haruka.Miyake@morganstanleymufg.com +81 3 6836-5421

AlphaSignals Earnings Reaction Jully Ussui

Unchanged In-line Largely unchanged Jully.Akina.Ussui.Nakao@morganstanleymufg.com +81 3 6836-5408

Impact to our thesis Financial results versus consensus Direction of next 12-month

consensus EPS

Source: Company data, Morgan Stanley Research

Key Takeaways

Announced at 2:20 p.m. The share price declined 3% from the previous day. Yakult Honsha (2267.T, 2267 JT)

Earnings briefing held from 4:00 p.m. Food | Japan

Stock Rating Underweight

1Q (Apr-Jun) OP was ¥10.1bn (down 7.5% YoY; vs. our forecast of ¥10.7bn and Industry View In-Line

consensus of ¥10.0bn). Price target ¥2,200

Shr price, close (Jul 31, 2026) ¥2,819

Relative to our forecast, Japan underperformed while Asia/Oceania outperformed. Mkt cap, curr, basic (bn) ¥869.1

Avg daily trading value (bn) ¥4.6

The company announced price increases for 12 products, including Yakult 400.

Prices will be raised by 8-12% from October. Management said it aims to limit the

resulting volume decline for the affected products to less than 5%.

Implications for the share price: Negative. Sales volumes in key high-profitability

markets that we focus on (Japan, China, and Mexico) were weak, suggesting limited

ability to absorb expected future cost increases. We estimate that the additional

domestic dairy product price increases announced today, effective from October,