Starbucks (SBUX US): Hold: Unwinding the durability of earnings recovery

Research evidence excerpt

Starbucks (SBUX US): Hold: Unwinding the durability of earnings recovery

ROE (%) -31.1 -36.3 -48.2 -138.6

quarters to provide a cleaner read on the sustainability of the earnings recovery.

52-WEEK PRICE (USD)

Outlook: We make modest changes to average 26/27e adj EPS (c2%) underpinned 120.00

by: (1) average 26/27e system comp sales +5.2% (+50bp vs prior); average 26/27e

97.00

unit growth (+2.5%, down 40bp) led by int’l (average +2.9%) with selective North

American store rationalization capping near-term expansion (average 26/27e +0.5%); 07/25 01/26 07/2674.00

(3) average 26/27e adj operating margin4 of 12.1% (up 10bp vs prior, 290bp shy of Target price: 101.00 High: 108.37 Low: 78.46 Current: 105.85

2024 levels) driven by easing coffee costs, Green Apron rollout anniversary, Source: Refinitiv IBES, HSBC estimates

continued cost efficiencies; and (4) average 26/27e earnings benefitting from tax rate

normalization (average 24.0% for 2027), and lower interest expense from deleverage Meredith Prichard Jensen

(2.8x in 2027e down from 4.3x 2025). Senior Analyst, US Consumer Discretionary

HSBC Securities (USA) Inc.

meredith.jensen@us.hsbc.com

Retain Hold, TP USD101.00: Anticipating improving sales momentum, YTD +1 212 525 6858

Starbucks has outperformed the S&P500 by c22%, trading at a 30% premium to its 5

Maria Eduarda Pedroso*

year forward P/E (25% premium on forward EV/EBITDA). While acknowledging the Analyst, US Consumer Discretionary

Banco HSBC S.A.

traction in the US business we view much of the progress already reflected in the maria.pedroso@hsbc.com

stock and reiterate our Hold rating. Our TP of USD101 (unchanged) is based on +55 11 9659 68080

unchanged 27e P/E of 32.6x, consistent with growth adjusted three-year pre- Sawyer Cremer

Analyst, Consumer Discretionary