Americana Restaurants (AMR UH): Hold: Margins supported; geopolitics caps valuation

Research evidence excerpt

Americana Restaurants (AMR UH): Hold: Margins supported; geopolitics caps valuation

Equities ● Hotels Restaurants & Leisure

31 July 2026

Strong 2Q26 top-line growth, despite softer UAE; KSA rebounds

AMR delivered 11% sales growth in 2Q26, supported by strong performance across several

core markets. Kuwait led growth (+17%), while Saudi Arabia (KSA) returned to expansion

(+9%), signaling a recovery. By contrast, UAE revenue growth moderated to +7%, and Egypt

eased to a more normalized growth rate of +15%. Overall, the softer momentum in the UAE was

offset by the improvement in Saudi Arabia, enabling AMR to maintain solid double-digit sales

growth, underpinned by c6% LFL growth in the quarter.

Resilient outlook on profitability in the short term driven by favourable input costs and

operating leverage

Management expects 2H26 margins to be broadly similar to 1H26, with a modest headwind

versus 1H26. The key factors are:

◆ Input cost phasing, as higher-cost inventory (notably logistics/insurance and alternate

sourcing) starts flowing through in 2H26, whereas 1H26 still benefited from some earlier-

procured stock

◆ Pricing and mix discipline, with measured, targeted pricing rather than blanket increases to

protect value and sustain traffic

◆ Operating leverage, where strong sales support fixed kitchen cost absorption and margin-

accretive menu innovations; and lastly

◆ Delivery economics, helped by lower aggregator take-rate pressure from new entrants,

reduced subscription participation versus last year, and ongoing last-mile delivery cost

optimisations

We now estimate a 100bp y-o-y expansion in AMR’s 2026 EBITDA margin (over 2025),

alongside a 130bp y-o-y improvement at the net income margin level (management guidance at

100-150bp improvement over 2025).