TAL Education Group (TAL US): Buy: 1QFY27 beat reinforces margin expansion story

Research evidence excerpt

TAL Education Group (TAL US): Buy: 1QFY27 beat reinforces margin expansion story

ted ROE (%) 15.2 21.2 15.2 15.1

our DCF-based target price to USD18.00 (from USD15.40). We maintain a Buy rating

on the strong visibility of earnings growth. Management also signalled an intention to 52-WEEK PRICE (USD)

adopt a more systematic and regular shareholder returns approach, with any 20.00

potential introduction of dividends representing a key catalyst to monitor. 13.90

TAL gains market share of learning devices despite market downcycle: Based 7.80

07/25 01/26 07/26

on RUNTO estimates, China’s learning pad market softened further in 1H26, with unit

Target price: 18.00 High: 12.91 Low: 8.95 Current: 10.89

sales down 14% y-o-y, and full-year sales likely to fall by 17%. The mix is also shifted

to the mid-tier segment (RMB2k~4k) from low-end models in 1H26. Against this Source: LSEG IBES, HSBC estimates

backdrop, TAL launched the X5 Ultra in March at c.RMB5k, and introduced its latest

Charlotte Wei*

flagship T6 series in July, priced at RMB6k to RMB9k. Key T6 upgrades include an Analyst, Internet Research

enhanced AI learning companion and AI-driven diagnostics to tailor study plans. Still, The Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corporation Limited

charlotte.wei@hsbc.com.hk

management emphasised a FY27 focus on improving the segment’s margin profile +852 2996 6539

amid rising memory costs and competitive pressure. Charlene Liu*

Head of Internet and Gaming Research, Asia Pacific

1Q FY27 review: TAL’s topline growth stayed robust at 32% y-o-y in the May quarter, The Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corporation

Limited, Singapore Branch

with revenue of USD758m coming in 7~8% above HSBCe and consensus, supported charlene.r.liu@hsbc.com.sg

by solid execution across its businesses.