Pause and Effect

Research evidence excerpt

Pause and Effect

Update

July 31, 2026 03:30 AM GMT

Morgan Stanley & Co. International plcMCEEMEA Economics Weekly | EEMEA Georgi Deyanov

Economist

Pause and Effect Georgi.Deyanov@morganstanley.comRMB Morgan Stanley Proprietary Limited +44 20 7425-7006

Andrea Masia

We expect the CNB to keep rates on hold as recent data suggest EconomistAndrea.Masia@rmbmorganstanley.com +27 11 587-0820

room for patience. We also elaborate on why we do not believe

Morgan Stanley & Co. International plc

the SARB's reaction function has changed. We expect inflation Yomna Moheieldin

for July to ease slightly in Turkey, drop further below 2%Y in EconomistYomna.Moheieldin@morganstanley.com +44 20 7677-0771

Hungary but re-accelerate in Egypt.

Recent Research Highlights

Czech Republic | Room to stay patient: Having hiked in June by 25bp, we expect the Czech Republic: CNB Preview: Room to Stay

CNB to leave its key policy rate unchanged at 3.75% while keeping the door open for Patient

further tightening ahead. South Africa: Has the reaction function

changed? • While we maintain our view that the central bank would most likely remain

CEEMEA Macro Focus: Divergence into Summer on hold throughout the rest of the year, we see risks for another 25bp hike in

South Africa: SARB Preview: A Divided Hike & 4Q26 should wage growth, mortgage lending and core inflation fail to ease

Steeper Curve in 3Q26.

Hungary: NBH Preview: Reducing Tightness • Since the June rates decision, headline and core inflation for June eased by

South Africa: London Trip Notes: Investors Think some 60bp and 10bp below the CNB forecast. Still, we expect the flash CPI

We're Early for July, to be published a day before the CNB rates decision, to rise to 1.7%M