Back to the Momentum?: European Equity Strategy | Europe

Research evidence excerpt

Back to the Momentum?: European Equity Strategy | Europe

Idea

July 31, 2026 04:00 AM GMT

Morgan Stanley & Co. International plc+MEuropean Equity Strategy | Europe Marina Zavolock

Equity Strategist

Back to the Momentum? Marina.Zavolock@morganstanley.comRegiane Yamanari +44 20 7425-2318

Regiane.Yamanari@morganstanley.com +44 20 7677-4652

We analyze momentum reversals over the past 30Y, finding 7 Morgan Stanley India Company Private Limited+

comparable rotations. Outside of end-of-cycle periods, history Karthik Nityanand

generally points to a recovery from recent lows as well as StrategistKarthik.Nityanand@morganstanley.com +91 22 6995-1587

improved momentum seasonality from August to year-end. We Morgan Stanley & Co. International plc+

also share investor feedback across EU sector teams & strategy, Leoni Externest, CFA

noting recent broad-based diversification interest. We suspect EquityLeoni.Externest@morganstanley.comStrategist +44 20 7425-2681

this interest has peaked for now but should stay relatively Emily A Woods

elevated vs March-May. EquityEmily.Woods@morganstanley.comStrategist +44 20 7425-1597

Morgan Stanley India Company Private Limited+

Key Takeaways Jitiksha Shah

While EU equities are not at the centre of the AI debate, rotation magnitudes Jitiksha.Shah@morganstanley.com +91 22 6995-9374

may be more comparable to LT history given lower levered ETF positioning

Morgan Stanley & Co. International plc+

versus the US & Korea. Max R Yates

Our analysis points to 2006, 2011, 2021 & 2022 as having somewhat comparable EquityMax.Yates@morganstanley.comAnalyst +44 20 7425-1917

momentum unwinds to recent months & stabilization / recovery around recent Robert Pulleyn

lows (Exh 3). More severe unwinds occurred in 1999, 2000 & 2009. Equity Analyst and Commodity Strategist