2Q26: Buybacks now expected with the Full Year Results

Research evidence excerpt

2Q26: Buybacks now expected with the Full Year Results

Update

July 31, 2026 06:47 AM GMT

Morgan Stanley Europe S.E., Madrid Branch+MNatWest Group | Europe Alvaro Serrano

Equity Analyst

2Q26: Buybacks now expected Alvaro.Serrano@morganstanley.comMorgan Stanley & Co. International plc+ +44 20 7425-6942

Almario Sulaj

Research Associatewith the Full Year Results Almario.Sulaj@morganstanley.com +44 20 7425-2049

NatWest Group (NWG.L, NWG LN)

AlphaSignals Earnings Reaction

Banks | United Kingdom

Unchanged Modest upside Modest revision higher

Impact to our thesis Financial results versus consensus Direction of next 12-month Stock Rating Equal-weight

consensus EPS Industry View Attractive

Price target 740p

Source: Company data, Morgan Stanley Research Shr price, close (Jul 30, 2026) 684p

52-Week Range 705-500p

Mkt cap, curr (mn) £81,817

Key Takeaways Up/downside to price target (%) 8

Avg daily trading value (mn) 14,091p

Underlying Ppop ex-conduct charges and notable items was 3% ahead of

consensus with NII 0.5% lower, and Other Income better than feared 8/15% ahead

of estimates

Provisions c. 40% lower drove a 12% PTP beat. CET1 is at 13.2%, 10bp better than

consensus and TNAV was 359, 1% lower on higher deductions for Evelyn.

2026 revenue guidance now includes Evelyn at £17.9bn vs. consensus at £18bn,

and Buybacks are now expected to resume at full year instead of 1H27.

We expect a neutral to modestly positive share price reaction based on better

Non-NII than feared and earlier buybacks.

Underlying Ppop ex-litigation and conduct was 3% ahead of consensus. NII was

0.5% below +3% qoq, with Non Interest Income ex-notable items 8/15% ahead of

consensus/MSe which had better CIB performance than we expected and benefited

from a change in insurance provider (pull forward of revenues).