F3/27 1Q Results: Substantial Overshoot, But Mainly Due to Inventory Factors

Research evidence excerpt

F3/27 1Q Results: Substantial Overshoot, But Mainly Due to Inventory Factors

Update

July 31, 2026 07:26 AM GMT

Morgan Stanley MUFG Securities Co., Ltd.+MDaicel (4202) | Japan Ryoichi Watanabe

Equity Analyst

F3/27 1Q Results: Substantial Ryoichi.Watanabe@morganstanleymufg.comTakato Watabe +81 3 6836-8929

Takato.Watabe@morganstanleymufg.com +81 3 6836-5436

Overshoot, But Mainly Due to Kayoko Shoji

Research Associate

Kayoko.Shoji@morganstanleymufg.com +81 3 6836-5437

Inventory Factors Kano Fujita

Kano.Fujita@morganstanleymufg.com +81 3 6836-8932

AlphaSignals Earnings Reaction

Unchanged Meaningful upside Modest revision higher

Impact to our thesis Financial results versus consensus Direction of next 12-month

consensus EPS

Source: Company data, Morgan Stanley Research

Daicel (4202.T, 4202 JP)

Key Takeaways Fine Chemicals | Japan

1Q OP was ¥14.0bn (+8% YoY), vs. guidance for ¥6.5bn. Stock Rating Equal-weight

Industry View In-Line

Upside factors: +¥1.2bn from timing of expenditures deviating from plan, +¥6.3bn Price target ¥1,500

Shr price, close (Jul 30, 2026) ¥1,446

from inventory effects Mkt cap, curr, basic (bn) ¥369.2

Avg daily trading value (bn) ¥1.5

Company suggested 2Q OP could fall short of guidance for ¥10.0bn

Daicel announced results at 13:20 JST on July 31 and held a briefing from 14:00. 1Q

OP was ¥14.0bn (+8% YoY), substantially above guidance of ¥6.5bn and our

forecast of ¥7.0bn. Earnings from High Performance Polymers and Materials

exceeded guidance. Management attributed the OP overshoot to a ¥1.2bn boost (as

some outlays were pushed back into 2Q and beyond) and a ¥6.3bn lift from

inventory effects (smaller inventory valuation losses; low-cost inventory on the

books at the start of the fiscal period). Excluding these two factors, progress