2Q26: FY Guide Reiterated, Consensus in Line

Research evidence excerpt

2Q26: FY Guide Reiterated, Consensus in Line

Update

July 31, 2026 10:22 AM GMT

Morgan Stanley & Co. International plc+MERG SpA | Europe Sarah E Lester, CFA

Equity Analyst

2Q26: FY Guide Reiterated, Sarah.Lester@morganstanley.comRobert Pulleyn +44 20 7425-0551

Equity Analyst and Commodity Strategist

Robert.Pulleyn@morganstanley.com +44 20 7425-4388

Consensus in Line Morgan Stanley Europe S.E., Paris Branch+

Arthur Sitbon, CFA

AlphaSignals Earnings Reaction Arthur.Sitbon@morganstanley.com +33 1 42 90 71-03

Unchanged In-line Largely unchanged

Morgan Stanley & Co. International plc+

Impact to our thesis Financial results versus consensus Direction of next 12-month

consensus EPS Marina Fuentes Juan

Research Associate

Source: Company data, Morgan Stanley Research

Marina.Fuentes.Juan@morganstanley.com +44 20 7425-2268

Arthur Descazeaud

Key Takeaways Research Associate

Arthur.Descazeaud1@morganstanley.com +44 20 7677-1282

We expect ERG shares to remain well supported in afternoon trading post their

intra-day 2Q result ERG SpA (ERG.MI, ERG IM)

Utilities | Italy

FY guide has been reiterated, despite challenging weather (mainly wind resource

Stock Rating Underweight

availability) Industry View Attractive

Price target €21.00

Consensus currently sits just above midpoint of EBITDA guided range at €566m Shr price, close (Jul 30, 2026) €21.26

52-Week Range €26.18-18.65

vs guided range €520-590m. Mkt cap, curr (mn) €3,090

Net debt (12/26e) (mn)* €1,747

DPS guide also in line with consensus, but street estimates slightly high on net EV, curr (mn)* €5,003

debt

* = GAAP or approximated based on GAAP

Call at 2.30pm CEST / 1.30pm UKT

FY guide unchanged, consensus in line: 2026 FY guidance has been reiterated with

EBITDA range €520-590m (Bloomberg consensus €566m) and net financial debt