F3/27 1Q Results: Upward Revision and Share Buyback are Positive Surprises

Research evidence excerpt

F3/27 1Q Results: Upward Revision and Share Buyback are Positive Surprises

Update

July 31, 2026 10:39 AM GMT

Morgan Stanley MUFG Securities Co., Ltd.+MResona Holdings (8308) | Japan Mia Nagasaka

Equity Analyst

F3/27 1Q Results: Upward Mia.Nagasaka@morganstanleymufg.com +81 3 6836-8406

Revision and Share Buyback are

Positive Surprises

Resona Holdings (8308.T, 8308 JT)

Banks | Japan

AlphaSignals Earnings Reaction Stock Rating Equal-weight

Industry View Attractive

Strengthens our thesis Modest upside Modest revision higher Price target ¥2,340

Impact to our thesis Financial results versus consensus Direction of next 12-month Shr price, close (Jul 31, 2026) ¥2,192

consensus EPS Mkt cap, curr, basic (bn) ¥5,002.8

Source: Company data, Morgan Stanley Research Avg daily trading value (bn) ¥16.4

Key Takeaways

The upward revision to full-year guidance (primarily reflecting the June rate hike)

and the size and timing of the share buyback were both surprises.

The results convey management's confidence in the earnings outlook.

F3/27 1Q results overview: 1) The announcement of an upward revision to full-year

guidance and a share buyback alongside 1Q results was a positive surprise. The

company raised its consolidated NP target from ¥310bn to ¥330bn and newly

authorized a ¥50bn share buyback (implying a total payout ratio of 50.9% based on

the revised earnings plan). 2) 1Q results confirmed continued growth in the core

business. Domestic deposit and lending income improved as both loan balances and

loan yields increased, while higher interest income from deposits held at the Bank of

Japan and from yen-denominated bonds also supported growth in net interest

income. Fee income also expanded, driven primarily by AUM-related and payments-

related businesses.