Umicore NV/SA (UMI.BR): 1H26:9% EBITDA beat, FY guidance raised on 1H performance

First-page research excerpt

Flash |

31 Jul 2026 02:26:06 ET │ 12 pages

Umicore NV/SA (UMI.BR)

1H26: 9% EBITDA beat, FY guidance raised on 1H performance

CITI'S TAKE

Neutral / High Risk

Price (30 Jul 26 17:30)

Target price

Expected share price return

Expected dividend yield

Expected total return

Market Cap

A strong beat, but the guidance upgrade is accounted for by 1H

performance and points to little, possibly slightly -ve, change to 2H

consensus. Adjusted EBITDA of €577m beat consensus by 9%, with all

operating divisions ahead, reinforcing confidence in the earnings

resilience and cash-generation potential of Umicore’s foundation

businesses. Recycling and Specialty Materials drove the upside through

exceptional trading, cobalt conditions and strong germanium demand,

while Catalysis expanded margins despite a declining ICE market. Battery

Materials returned to positive EBITDA, although mainly through take-orpay accruals rather than volume recovery. Free cash flow reached €295m,

well ahead of expectations. FY26 guidance rises to slightly above €1bn,

but the €47m 1H beat is at the top end of the implied full-year upgrade

pointing to flat to lower H2 expectations as Recycling and Specialty

Materials normalize. We expect a low-single-digit increase to FY26

EBITDA consensus and limited positive read-through to 2027.

Ranulf Orr, CFAAC

Sebastian Satz, CFA

2H Divisional Performance — Catalysis EBITDA beat consensus by 2%, with margin

strength offsetting softer revenue. Recycling beat by 12% on exceptional Jewelry &

Industrial Metals activity and favorable trading. Specialty Materials beat by 10%,

driven by cobalt profitability, germanium and semiconductors. Battery Materials

EBITDA reached €10m, ahead of €7m consensus, although the improvement was

mainly take-or-pay related.

Omi Pallavi

Outlook 2026 — FY26 EBITDA guidance increases from approaching €1bn to

slightly above €1bn. However, the €47m H1 beat exceeds the implied full-year

upgrade and suggests little change for 2H. This reflects expected normalization in

Recycling and Specialty Materials and lower sequential Catalysis earnings.

Implications — A strong 1H, with Foundation-business resilience reinforced by

Umicore NV/SA (EUR)

Year to 31 Dec

…