The Point for CEEMEA

First-page research excerpt

Point |

The Point for CEEMEA

Friday, 31 July 2026

Top Call | MENA | South Africa | Emerging Europe | Strategy & Economics | Fixed Income & FX | Key

Rating and Target Price Changes

Top Call

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Salik Company PJSC (SALIK.DU) - Looking Ahead to 2Q26 Results

Emerging Markets Economic Outlook

& Strategy - Artificial Intelligence and

the EM Growth Divide

We update our Salik model ahead of 2Q26 results. We update our forecasts for

recent DXB flight data and traffic jam delay data (shown below), which implies

lower net toll traffic yoy although improving vs 1Q. Considering this and our view of

a delayed recovery into 1H27 vs our earlier anticipation of full recovery in 3Q26, we

lower our estimates. We now expect top-line to decline by c5% in FY26e, but see

10% growth in FY27e. Our FY26/27e EBITDA estimates are trimmed by c4%/5% as

lower net toll traffic and slower than anticipated recovery drive a slight pressure on

margins. Other growth avenues, however, look promising, such as expanding

digital payment solutions, agreement with Dubai Airport for E-Wallet parking

payments, and other collaborations. Reiterate Buy with TP of AED 6.3, down from

AED 6.8 reflecting our estimate changes. We don’t expect Salik to change its 2026

outlook at this stage.

Klas Bergelind | Ashish Khetan

Kaspi.kz (KSPI.O) - 2Q26 preview (due Aug 10): Similar trends to 1Q26, Rate cuts

support outlook

Previewing 2Q26 results, we expect broadly similar trends to 1Q26, with net profit

-3%YoY (vs. -1% in 1Q26). We expect Marketplace GMV growth to slow to 16%YoY

from 19% in 1Q26 due to lower average check in Turkey despite double-digit order

growth; Payments TPV growth to remain stable at 14% YoY; and Fintech revenue

and loan growth to stay robust at c.20%YoY despite TFV declining 2%YoY,

reflecting longer loan duration. We expect no guidance changes, except a

refocusing from TFV to loan/Fintech revenue growth. We remain constructive on

the outlook as Kazakhstan's central bank has cut rates twice since June (-125bps

to 16.75%), while our economists expect the policy rate to fall to 16% by end-2026

and 12% by end-2027, supporting Kaspi's growth and margins into 2027e. We

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