Logitech (LOGN.S): Innovation and mix remains supportive, though supply disruption weighs near-term

Research evidence excerpt

Logitech (LOGN.S): Innovation and mix remains supportive, though supply disruption weighs near-term

Goldman Sachs Logitech (LOGN.S)

As such, while the timing of the supplier restart remains a near-term uncertainty, we

note that Logitech’s balance sheet and inventory position provide some buffer. While

Logitech guided to EBIT of $198mn at the midpoint in FY2Q, 10% below VA

consensus into the print, we note that the revenue impact from supplier disruption

was $20mn, suggesting some of the EBIT shortfall was explained by this temporary

dynamic.

Changes to estimates

We lower our FY27-31 revenues by c.5% to reflect the supply side issues affecting Logi’s

ability to fulfil demand in 2Q/3QFY27. As such, we keep our growth rates unchanged for

FY28-31 given we see scope for a reacceleration in demand following the resolution of

supply issues given commentary on continued demand momentum, market share gains

and product portfolio premiumisation in Logi’s key segments such as Video conferencing

and Gaming. We change our FY27-31 non-GAAP gross profit estimate by -4% to -1% to

reflect a lower topline partially offset by better product mix. Our non-GAAP EBIT

estimate moves by -9% to -6% across FY27-31 reflecting our updated topline, gross

margin and opex estimates. As such, our non-GAAP EPS forecasts change by -8% to -5%

across FY27-31 and reflect changes to our non-GAAP EBIT, and based on the latest

share count assumptions.

Valuation and key risks

We are Buy rated on Logitech, with a 12-month price target of SFr 95 (unchanged) based

on 21x 2HCY27+1HCY28 (vs 21x CY27 prior) adjusted EPS multiple applied to our

updated EPS estimates which factor in the latest FX and a roll forward our valuation

period. Key risks to our view and price target include weaker end markets and negative