Rio Tinto Ltd. (RIO.AX): 1H26 result: Simplification strategy accelerating; upgrade to Buy on valuation & compelling Cu Eq growth

Research evidence excerpt

Rio Tinto Ltd. (RIO.AX): 1H26 result: Simplification strategy accelerating; upgrade to Buy on valuation & compelling Cu Eq growth

Equity Research

30 July 2026 | 2:30AM AEST

Rio Tinto Ltd. (RIO.AX): 1H26 result: Simplification strategy accelerating;

upgrade to Buy on valuation & compelling Cu Eq growth

RIO reported 1H26 underlying EBITDA/NPAT of US$14.8bn/US$6.9bn (+28%/+43% Paul Young

+61(2)9321-8302 |

YoY) vs. GSe US$14.9bn/US$6.2bn and Visible Alpha Consensus Data at paul.young1@gs.com

Goldman Sachs Australia Pty Ltd

US$15.1bn/US$6.6bn. Earnings beat on lower underlying tax rate of ~25% (vs. GSe

Chris Bulgin

30%; guidance now lowered to 25%). At the divisional level EBITDA, copper +61(2)9321-8936 | chris.bulgin@gs.com

(Bingham; better revenue on higher US copper premiums) and iron ore (Pilbara; unit Goldman Sachs Australia Pty Ltd

costs) and aluminium (Primary metal costs) all beat, offset partly by higher than

expected project evaluation costs & other operations (higher provisions due to

inflation).

Net debt of US$14.1bn was well below our US$14.8bn estimate on higher than

expected OCF and lower capex. The interim dividend of US211cps (US$3.4bn) was

above GSe at US190cps on the earnings beat, and was the typical 50% payout for the

interim.

There was no change to 2026 production, with capex guidance of up to US$11bn for

‘26/27 and Pilbara unit cost guidance of US$23.5-25/t. However, cost out targets

(outlined at the investor day in late 2025 (“stronger, sharper, simpler” agenda)) have

been increased from US$0.65bn (by end of 1Q26) to US$1.8bn by year-end. While

some of this cost out is structural, a large proportion is related to productivity. The

US$1.8bn represents ~5% of RIO’s cost base, so this initiative should help offset

wider inflationary pressures.