Power Tracker: PJM and ERCOT: Record Demand vs Price Divergence

Research evidence excerpt

Power Tracker: PJM and ERCOT: Record Demand vs Price Divergence

Commodities Research

29 July 2026 | 3:14PM EDT

n July heat wave pushes PJM demand past its 20-year peak. On July 2, PJM’s Laura Cyr

+1(212)902-3435 | laura.x.cyr@gs.com

peak-hour power demand reached 168 GW,1 surpassing the prior high of 166 Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC

GW from 2006. A second heat wave experienced around July 15 prompted PJM Hongcen Wei

+1(212)934-4691 |

to issue another hot weather alert but did not break the July 2 record. Real-time hongcen.wei@gs.com Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC

metered peak demand during the record-breaking hour printed at 162 GW, 6 Daan Struyven

GW below the 168 GW figure due to Energy Emergency Alerts and associated +1(212)357-4172 | daan.struyven@gs.com

demand management, including deferred maintenance and equipment testing, a Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC

Dart DOE 202(c) emergency order permitting units to run beyond environmental Samantha | +1(212)357-9428

permit limits, curtailed exports to neighboring regions, and calls on samantha.dart@gs.comGoldman Sachs & Co. LLC

pre-committed demand-response.

o Prices confirm the strain. Elevated congestion drove up PJM’s day-ahead

prices to the highest on record for peak-summer months (June-August)

and over double the prior summer high (Exhibit 1). This is consistent with

PJM’s multi-year tightening in the forward capacity market where the

latest Base Residual Auction results released earlier this month for the

2028/29 delivery year cleared at the price cap for the third consecutive

auction.

o Pressure on PJM operators intensifies. On July 23, FERC held a technical

conference with White House Officials and PJM stakeholders to address

supply-reliability concerns, discussing measures such as breaking up PJM’s