Pembina Pipeline Corp (PPL.TO): Down The Fairway But One Thing May Still Present Some Upside

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Pembina Pipeline Corp (PPL.TO): Down The Fairway But One Thing May Still Present Some Upside

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30 Jul 2026 19:48:29 ET │ 11 pages

Pembina Pipeline Corp (PPL.TO)

Down The Fairway But One Thing May Still Present Some Upside

CITI'S TAKE

Neutral PPL continues to point to the midpoint of the '26 EBITDA guidance range

despite macro strength as seasonality, maintenance and front-half Price (30 Jul 26 16:00) C$70.56

weighted Cochin annual take-or-pay commitments weigh on 3Q26 Target price C$70.00

earnings. We continue to view elevated commodity prices into the less Expected share price return -0.8%

hedged 4Q26 period as a source of upside to the '26 guidance midpoint. Expected dividend yield 4.1%

Incremental project updates were limited with the print - somewhat Expected total return 3.3%

expected given recent commercial success (Greenlight + HEP). Non-

Market Cap C$41,026M binding negotiations for potential investment in WCOP remain

US$29,280M ongoing. On the quarter, PPL reported 2Q26 EBITDA of C$1,064mm,

below Citi estimate of C$1,072mm and Street mean of C$1,082mm. Lower

than expected Pipeline and Facilities volumes drove the slight miss.

Notably, NGL volumes were flat QoQ despite a partial quarter of RFS IV; Spiro DounisAC

we suspect this could reflect the limited contribution (one month) and a +1-212-816-6926

potential ramp up period. spiro.dounis@citi.com

Douglas Irwin

Implications — We expect a largely neutral reaction to the slight miss with '26 +1-212-816-9525

EBITDA still trending to the midpoint of the range. Major commercial

douglas.irwin@citi.com

announcements were made ahead of this earnings release and expectations were

generally muted given the bevy of announcements that have already occurred. Any Charles Bryant