July 30: USD/JPY Declines, Tech Rebound: Global Macro Commentary | North America

Research evidence excerpt

July 30: USD/JPY Declines, Tech Rebound: Global Macro Commentary | North America

Update

July 30, 2026 10:54 PM GMT

Morgan Stanley & Co. LLCMGlobal Macro Commentary | North America Molly Nickolin

Strategist

July 30: USD/JPY Declines, Tech Molly.Nickolin@morganstanley.comLingdi Xu +1 212 761-3592

Economist

Lingdi.Xu@morganstanley.com +1 212 761-2957

Rebound Sofia Palacios

Sofia.Palacios@morganstanley.com +1 212 761-0428

Core PCE undershot; US curve twist-steepened; reported Japan

Morgan Stanley Asia Limited+

intervention lifted JPY; BOE held with dovish guidance; tech led a Gek Teng Khoo

narrow equity rebound; COP outperformed EM; DXY at 99.98 (- StrategistGek.Teng.Khoo@morganstanley.com +852 3963-0303

0.9%); US 10y at 4.67 (-0.4bp).

Morgan Stanley MUFG Securities Co., Ltd.+

Hiromu UezatoSofter US inflation and reported Japanese FX intervention weakened the dollar

and supported front-end bonds, while concerns over the Fed’s reaction function Hiromu.Uezato@morganstanleymufg.com +81 3 6836-8431

kept long-end yields elevated and the equity rebound concentrated in

technology. Luyao Liu

Developed Markets Luyao.Liu@morganstanley.com +852 3963-4827

• US rates twist-steepened (2y: -2.7bp; 30y: +1.3bp) as softer inflation data Morgan Stanley & Co. International plc+

Jasper Knyphausen

supported the front end, while the long end remained pressured by Strategist

concerns over the Fed’s inflation-fighting credibility. June core PCE rose Jasper.Knyphausen@morganstanley.com +44 20 7425-2185

0.1% m/m versus 0.2% expected, while headline PCE fell 0.1% m/m and core

inflation remained at 3.3% y/y. Second-quarter GDP expanded at a 1.5%

annualized pace versus 2.0% expected, although personal consumption

strengthened to 3.2% and measures of underlying domestic demand

remained firm.