Olin (OLN.N): 2Q26 Beat; 3Q26 Guide Below Expectations as Reduced VCM Op Rates & Weaker EDC Pricing Offset Strength in Caustic

Research evidence excerpt

Olin (OLN.N): 2Q26 Beat; 3Q26 Guide Below Expectations as Reduced VCM Op Rates & Weaker EDC Pricing Offset Strength in Caustic

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30 Jul 2026 18:36:36 ET │ 12 pages

Olin (OLN.N)

2Q26 Beat; 3Q26 Guide Below Expectations as Reduced VCM Op Rates

& Weaker EDC Pricing Offset Strength in Caustic

CITI'S TAKE Rating Suspended

Price (30 Jul 26 16:00) US$22.17 OLN delivered a beat on adj. EBITDA with $191mm coming in above

Target price - $184mm consensus. The beat was largely driven by corporate expense,

with $(25)mm coming ahead of our $(40)mm assumption. CAP&V Expected share price return -

delivered solid sequential improvement from higher ECU netbacks and Expected dividend yield -

short-term price benefits, but incurred a $40mm impact from an Expected total return -

unplanned VCM shutdown. Epoxy improved sequentially on higher Market Cap US$2,527M

pricing, but seasonal demand was characterized as weaker than usual.

Winchester price increases continue to offset higher metal costs, and the

company delivered solid sequential EBITDA improvement. Looking ahead,

midpoint guidance of $180mm is solidly below $224mm consensus, with Patrick CunninghamAC

CAP&V impacted by a $20mm headwind from reduced VCM op. rates and +1-212-816-6684

continued weak EDC pricing. Epoxy margins are expected to improve on patrick.cunningham@citi.com

mix, with volumes described as stable. In Winchester, the company Alexander Yi

expects continued price increases and stronger seasonal demand. +1-212-816-4220

alexander.yi@citi.com

Segment Analysis — Chlor Alkali Products and Vinyls sales decreased 16% Y/Y to Rachel Lee

$820mm (vs our $954mm est), driven by lower volumes primarily due to lower +1-212-816-4559

trading volumes associated with Blue Water Alliance JV, and lower VCM volumes. rachel.lee@citi.com