Expectations May Need to Recalibrate (Again)

Research evidence excerpt

Expectations May Need to Recalibrate (Again)

Idea

July 30, 2026 07:12 PM GMT

Morgan Stanley & Co. LLCMSaia, Inc. | North America Ravi Shanker

Equity Analyst

Expectations May Need to Ravi.Shanker@morganstanley.comNancy Hipp +1 212 761-6350

Research Associate

Nancy.Hipp@morganstanley.com +1 212 761-1311

Recalibrate (Again) Madison J Pasterchick

What’s Changed Madison.Pasterchick@morganstanley.com +1 212 761-3787

Saia, Inc. (SAIA.O) From To Saia, Inc. (SAIA.O, SAIA US)

Price Target $295.00 $285.00

Freight Transportation | United States of America

Stock Rating Underweight

Industry View In-Line AlphaSignals Earnings Reaction

Price target $285.00

Unchanged Modest upside Modest revision lower Shr price, close (Jul 29, 2026) $394.44

Impact to our thesis Financial results versus consensus Direction of next 12-month Mkt cap, curr (mm) $10,584

consensus EPS 52-Week Range $494.71-249.32

Source: Company data, Morgan Stanley Research

SAIA’s 2Q was a fuel-aided modest beat and 3Q color points to

downside to numbers. Mgmt. continues to push idiosyncratic

initiatives to close the gap to peers but the gap to cons. shows

that expectations may be too high and need (another)

recalibration.

Key Takeaways

SAIA delivered a modest 2Q beat, though fuel was the primary driver of the

upside, which the market may view as transitory.

Mgmt. highlighted self-help initiatives, including customer service improvements,

better safety metrics, and mix management.

3Q commentary came in below expectations, with July volumes decelerating

versus June and OR guidance implying greater sequential deterioration than

expected.

Mgmt. appeared to lean toward the low end of its FY OR improvement target,

citing a lack of cyclical volume.

Potential downward earnings revisions may explain the stock -12% today, while