Brazil June Loans and Margins - Wrapping up the Plano Safra 2025/26 season

Research evidence excerpt

Brazil June Loans and Margins - Wrapping up the Plano Safra 2025/26 season

increased to 9.8% from 9.3%. Borrowing conditions eased during the second half of

Rumo SA: June Volumes: Solid 2Q26 Print (8 Jul

the season but remained challenging relative to farmer profitability, particularly

2026)

with consumer NPLs still elevated at 7.6%, including 13.0% for market-rate loans.

Credit availability remained constrained despite Plano Safra support. Total SLC Agricola S.A.: SLC Agricola's Strategic

originations reached R$326bn, down 2.9% YoY. Market-rate lending declined 5.0% Acquisition Faces Earnings and Leverage

YoY to R$128bn, while BNDES originations fell 10.9% YoY to R$25bn. Regulated Challenges (28 Jun 2026)

credit proved more resilient, remaining broadly flat at R$173bn (+0.1% YoY) and

increasing its participation in total agricultural funding. LatAm Agribusiness: Brazil Sugar - Weather

Disruptions Slow Strong Start; Ethanol Caps

The funding mix shifted further toward regulated credit as private funding

Upside (26 Jun 2026)

channels slowed. Regulated loans accounted for 53% of accumulated originations

during the season, up from 52% a year ago, while market-rate loans declined to 39%

Brazil Agri Credit and Farmer Margins - April

from 40% and BNDES participation fell to 8% from 8.3%. The decline in both

Update (28 May 2026)

market-rate and BNDES lending suggests overall financing conditions remained

restrictive despite Plano Safra support, helping explain persistent pressure on

WASDE: 2026/27 Corn Stocks Tighten Globally;

farmer liquidity and credit quality.

Soybean Stocks Tighten in the U.S. (13 May

Farmers' break-even yields continue to move higher, reaching 56 sc/ha for 2026)

soybeans (vs. 52 sc/ha last year) and 133 sc/ha for corn (vs. 114 sc/ha), leaving