Small Headline Uptick, Stable Core Confirmed

Research evidence excerpt

Small Headline Uptick, Stable Core Confirmed

Update

July 30, 2026 02:42 PM GMT

Morgan Stanley Europe S.E.MEuro Area Inflation | Europe Jens Eisenschmidt

Chief Europe Economist

Small Headline Uptick, Stable Jens.Eisenschmidt@morganstanley.comJean-Francois Ouvrard +49 69-21662817

Deputy Chief European Economist

Jean-Francois.Ouvrard@morganstanley.com +49 69-21662813

Core Confirmed Morgan Stanley & Co. International plc

Chiara Zangarelli

After some country releases today, we confirm our forecast for Economist

Chiara.Zangarelli@morganstanley.com +44 20 7677-3644

July EA headline HICP inflation at 2.9%Y and core at 2.4%Y, both

Morgan Stanley Europe S.E.

in line with consensus. We highlight slight upside risks on core. Gabriela Silova

Our ECB call is unchanged. Economist

Gabriela.Silova@morganstanley.com +49 69-21662832

EA inflation | Headline 2.9%Y (from 2.8%Y in June) and core 2.4%Y (stable from Morgan Stanley & Co. International plc

June): Ahead of the EA HICP release on Friday 31 July, we have received prints from Skander Garchi Casal

Germany, Spain, and Belgium (see country paragraphs below). For both headline and Economist

Skander.Garchi.Casal@morganstanley.com +44 20 7425-0034

core, we think the read-across is in line with our euro area forecast for a slight

increase of headline to 2.9%Y from 2.8%Y and core stable at 2.4%Y (both in line

Claire A Thuerwaechter

with consensus). But we note a slight upside risk to core. In more detail, headline Economist

inflation was in line with our forecast for Germany, slightly lower than expected in Claire.Thuerwaechter@morganstanley.com +49 69-21662842

Spain (-5bp) and above our forecast in Belgium (30bp). At the euro area level the

surprises for Spain and Belgium broadly net out. Core HICP, on our estimates, was