2Q26 1st Take: Slight beat ex-deferrals, guide held

Research evidence excerpt

2Q26 1st Take: Slight beat ex-deferrals, guide held

Update

July 30, 2026 01:10 PM GMT

Morgan Stanley & Co. LLCMHilton Grand Vacations Inc | North America Stephen W Grambling

Equity Analyst

2Q26 1st Take: Slight beat ex- Stephen.Grambling@morganstanley.comJames F Koehne, CFA +1 212 761-1010

Research Associate

James.Koehne@morganstanley.com +1 212 761-2186

deferrals, guide held

Hilton Grand Vacations Inc (HGV.N, HGV UN)

Gaming & Lodging | United States of America

AlphaSignals Earnings Reaction

Stock Rating Equal-weight

Unchanged Modest upside Largely unchanged Industry View In-Line

Impact to our thesis Financial results versus consensus Direction of next 12-month Price target $58.00

consensus EPS Shr price, close (Jul 29, 2026) $51.42

Mkt cap, curr (mm) ND

Source: Company data, Morgan Stanley Research 52-Week Range $55.32-36.80

HGV reported 2Q adj. EBITDA (ex-deferrals) modestly ahead of Fiscal Year Ending 12/25 12/26e 12/27e 12/28e

EPS ($)** 2.32 5.10 5.89 7.94

MS/cons and reiterated 2026 guidance. Relative to our Prior EPS ($)** - - - -

estimates, weaker contract sales and higher sales/marketing P/EEPS ($)§ 19.31.62 10.14.73 5.298.7 5.946.5

costs were offset by lower cost of VOI. Expect a focus on Div yld (%) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

steeper VPG declines in the quarter, which eroded sequentially. Unlessframeworkotherwise noted, all metrics are based on Morgan Stanley ModelWare

** = Based on consensus methodology

§ = Consensus data is provided by Refinitiv Estimates

Key Takeaways e = Morgan Stanley Research estimates Quarterly EPS ($)

2Q EBITDA beat MS/consensus as lower cost of inventory offset a weaker top- 2026e 2026e 2027e 2027e

Quarter 2025 Prior Current Prior Current

line and higher sales/marketing and other costs. Q1 0.24 - 1.12a - 0.71

Q2 0.55 - 0.91 - 1.27