MOL Group (MOL HB): Initiate at Buy: Simpler than it seems

Research evidence excerpt

MOL Group (MOL HB): Initiate at Buy: Simpler than it seems

Equities ● Oil & Gas

30 July 2026

Executive summary

◆ An integrated oil and gas company with an international upstream

portfolio and CEE downstream footprint

◆ Strong downstream earnings power, stable FCF and dividends, but

complicated ownership structure and ageing upstream assets

◆ Initiate coverage with a Buy rating and TP of HUF5,400 (DCF and

DY-based)

Introducing MOL Group: MOL Group is an integrated oil and gas company with a high-quality

470 kbpd refining capacity located in Hungary, Croatia and Slovakia, petrochemical plants, a

large region-wide network of fuel retail stations, and 94kbpd of upstream output dominated by

assets in CEE, Azerbaijan and Kurdistan. MOL Group has been an active consolidator in the

past, with its largest deals including the acquisition of Slovnaft and accumulation of a 49% stake

in Croatia’s INA (not covered) where it exercises operating control. Over the past few years, the

upstream and downstream segments each contributed 35-40% to MOL’s EBITDA, with most of

the rest from the fuel retail segment (consumer services).

Ownership structure and governance: The company has a complicated ownership structure

with multiple share swap and option agreements. The Hungarian government owns one series

“B” share with preferential voting rights. According to MOL’s Articles of Association, no

shareholder or shareholder group may exercise more than 10% of the voting rights, with the

exception of entities acting at the company’s request as depository or custodian for the

company’s shares.

MOL Group: Major shareholders

Shareholder % of shares

Maecenas Universitatis Corvini Foundation 10.0%

Tihany Foundation 10.0%

MOL New Europe foundation 10.5%