Check Point Software Technologies, Inc. (CHKP.O): C2Q26 Quick Take: Fundamentals Remain Flat

Research evidence excerpt

Check Point Software Technologies, Inc. (CHKP.O): C2Q26 Quick Take: Fundamentals Remain Flat

side to key topline indicators, including billings, which continue to undergrow industry levels.

Additionally, the material NTM cost headwinds (FX, M&A) also elevates the downside risk on margins, particularly given new

mgmt’s growth initiatives and potential for transformational M&A.

3) Tightening budgetary environment keeps CHKP out of favor – Against tight budgetary environments where deals see greater

scrutiny, the company’s sub-optimal positioning against better-established and executing peers (PANW and FTNT) will likely

keep CHKP in a share donor position.

Fortinet, Inc.

(FTNT.O; US$153.22; 2; 29 Jul 26; 16:00)

Valuation

We apply an equally weighted sales/FCF/EPS-based approach on our CY27 estimates to derive our price target, given FTNT’s

maturity, size, public company history, and profitability levels. Our $185 price target is based on an equal blend of 12x EV/S,

35x EV/FCF, and 50x P/E on CY27E. Our multiples sit ahead of historical medians against a positive-leaning view on the

company’s ability to deliver sustained and diversified low-mid-teens Product growth and mid-teens revs growth, particularly

given the emerging AI-driven use cases and evidence of broader share gains in networking and security budget pools. On the

margin, we remain positive on the cadence for Services growth re-acceleration but recognize this could be a shallower slope

than the higher expectations the stock is now pricing-in/demanding. Given demonstrable track record of operational rigor, we

feel confident around FTNT’s ability to manage/capture incremental margins, whilst navigating current COGS pressures and

prudently reinvesting for scaling growth (e.g. adding headcount).

Risks