Nongfu Spring (9633 HK): Buy: 1H26 preview – resilient results despite a competitive market

Research evidence excerpt

Nongfu Spring (9633 HK): Buy: 1H26 preview – resilient results despite a competitive market

s in 2H26. We therefore lower our

2026e net profit forecast by 3%, driven by a 4% reduction in revenue assumptions. 52-WEEK PRICE (HKD)

We now forecast 2026e net profit to increase 11% y-o-y on 13% revenue growth, 59.00

while expecting GPM pressure from higher PET costs to become more visible in

2H26. We keep our 2026-28e revenue and net profit CAGR broadly unchanged at 48.00

12%/13%, but reduce our 2027/28e earnings forecasts by 3%/4%, respectively. Our 37.00

current 2026/27 net profit forecasts remain broadly in line with the consensus. 07/25 01/26 07/26

Target price: 54.00 High: 56.10 Low: 39.62 Current: 44.90

Premium valuation underpinned by long-term growth: The stock is currently

Source: LSEG IBES, HSBC estimates

trading at 24x/22x 2026/27e PE, vs the MSCI China Consumer Index’s one-year

forward PE of 13x. We believe the valuation premium remains justified by the

Lina Yan*, CFA

company’s long-term growth potential, supported by its multi-category portfolio and Consumer Analyst, Hong Kong and mainland China

exposure to rising health-conscious consumption trends. Its “open-cap lottery” The Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corporation Limited

campaign is being rolled out across the broader beverage portfolio in 2026, linayjyan@hsbc.com.hk +852 2822 4344

compared with a primary focus on ice-tea and sugar-free tea in 2025, which could

Yimin Wang*

accelerate growth across other beverage categories. Associate, China Consumer Research

The Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corporation Limited

Maintain Buy; lower target price to HKD54.00 (from HKD56.80): We slightly lower yimin.wang@hsbc.com.hk

our target PE to 28.1x (from 28.4x), based on 0.5x SD below the updated average +852 5696 5573