ENI (ENI IM): Hold: Robust results, buyback boosted

Research evidence excerpt

ENI (ENI IM): Hold: Robust results, buyback boosted

r now, we raise our 2026 buyback ROE (%) 9.9 16.0 13.2 13.8

assumption to EUR3.4bn, aligned with current guidance, but tighter macro conditions 52-WEEK PRICE (EUR)

present upside risk to our base case assumption.

27.00

Positive upgrades elsewhere: Along with some price revisions, Eni raised its CFFO 20.00

(pre-WC) guidance to EUR15bn (which was increased to EUR13.8bn last quarter from

EUR11.5bn). Production for 2026 is now expected to grow +5% y-o-y (from +3-4%). 07/25 01/26 07/2613.00

GGP EBIT guidance was revised up to >EUR1.4bn (from EUR1.3bn). Enilive’s EBIT Target price: 24.00 High: 24.88 Low: 14.59 Current: 23.58

guidance also saw an uplift, to EUR1.3bn (from EUR1.1bn). Net capex is now Source: LSEG IBES, HSBC estimates

expected to be <EUR5bn (from cEUR5bn). Eni expects pro forma gearing to remain at

c10% at year-end (reduced from lower-end of the 10-15% range previously). Sadnan Ali*, CFA

Global Oil & Gas Analyst

Conference call highlights: Eni’s upstream portfolio is rapidly expanding, with 54 HSBC Bank plc

sadnan.ali@hsbc.com

organic projects in its current pipeline; refining capture was weaker due to higher shipping +44 207 9910569

costs and crude availability; infrastructure partnership presents an alternative way to Kim Fustier*

monetise its assets and recycle capital; European gas markets to remain tight. Senior Global Oil & Gas Analyst

HSBC Bank plc

kim.fustier@hsbc.com

Retain Hold rating, raise TP to EUR24.00 (from EUR23.50): Our upgraded +44 20 3359 2136

buyback and higher earnings expectations for 2026 offset our weaker Brent Ujjwal Sharma*

assumptions for 2026, see Oil markets: Cutting forecasts: Mini-glut now, surplus later Associate

Bangalore

(8 July 2026).