Automatic Data Processing Inc | North America F4Q26 EPS Recap - No Employment Concerns Here

Research evidence excerpt

Automatic Data Processing Inc | North America F4Q26 EPS Recap - No Employment Concerns Here

Update

July 30, 2026 09:30 AM GMT

Morgan Stanley & Co. LLCMAutomatic Data Processing Inc | North America James E Faucette

Equity Analyst

F4Q26 EPS Recap - No James.Faucette@morganstanley.comMichael N Infante +1 212 296-5771

Michael.Infante@morganstanley.com +1 212 761-4631

Employment Concerns Here Meryl R Thomas, CFA

What’s Changed Meryl.Thomas@morganstanley.com +1 212 761-0774

Shefali Tamaskar

Automatic Data Processing Inc (ADP.O) From To Research Associate

Price Target $240.00 $286.00 Shefali.Tamaskar@morganstanley.com +1 212 761-4948

ADP’s underlying ES growth is steadier than the headline Automatic Data Processing Inc (ADP.O, ADP US)

Payments and Processing | United States of America

suggests after normalizing for FX and WFS, but float is still

Stock Rating Equal-weight

doing more of the work. Durable pricing, retention and Industry View Attractive

Price target $286.00

employment support EPS, while tougher bookings comps keep Shr price, close (Jul 29, 2026) $273.37

us EW. PT rises to $286. Mkt52-Weekcap, currRange(mm) $315.98-188.16$110,046

Fiscal Year Ending 06/26 06/27e 06/28e 06/29e

Key Takeaways EPS ($)** 11.14 12.31 13.63 15.13

Prior EPS ($)** 11.07 12.11 13.30 -

Headline ES ex-float deceleration overstates the slowdown. FY27 growth of P/E 20.1 22.2 20.1 18.1

~4.6% compares with a normalized ~4.8% in FY26 after stripping out FX and Div yld (%) 3.0 2.5 2.6 2.6

WFS. Unless otherwise noted, all metrics are based on Morgan Stanley ModelWare

framework

** = Based on consensus methodology

Float is doing more work. It should contribute ~24% of incremental ES growth in e = Morgan Stanley Research estimates

FY27 vs. ~17% in FY26 and remains a meaningful revenue and EPS tailwind.