Kimberly-Clark (KMB.O): Improving PG Market Share in Baby Care Could Hurt KMB Sales Growth

Research evidence excerpt

Kimberly-Clark (KMB.O): Improving PG Market Share in Baby Care Could Hurt KMB Sales Growth

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30 Jul 2026 05:00:00 ET │ 13 pages

Kimberly-Clark (KMB.O)

Improving PG Market Share in Baby Care Could Hurt KMB Sales Growth

CITI'S TAKE

Sell PG reported F4Q26 results yesterday highlighting progress in its Baby

Care business both in the US and China, which we believe could be a drag Short-Term View: Downside

to KMB sales growth in the coming quarter and going forward - Baby & Price (29 Jul 26 16:00) US$113.21

Child Care sales were ~40% of KMB global sales in 2025 based on the Target price US$90.00

latest 10-K. In the US, PG made price interventions to close the value gap Expected share price return -20.5%

with competition, which have resulted in improved market share trends on Expected dividend yield 4.6%

tape diapers and has further innovation coming later in the year. In China, Expected total return -15.9%

PG posted strong growth in Baby (+29% Y/Y) aided by concerns on

Market Cap US$37,579M competing products, including KMB’s Huggies, following investigations

from Chinese authorities for the alleged presence of formamide (see article

here). Given these dynamics and commodity pressure in 2H’26, we open a

negative 30 days short-term view on KMB, ahead of earnings (scheduled Filippo Falorni, CFAAC

for 8/4). +1-212-816-3743

filippo.falorni@citi.com

US Commentary — PG indicated that its price interventions to close the value gap

vs competitors are resulting in improved share growth in tape diapers with further

innovation in the balance of the year: “In the US, I would really point to the progress

we're making at the customer & category level. […] But, for example, on diapers, on

tape diapers where we adjusted competitiveness from a value perspective, we saw