F3/27 1Q Results: Below Consensus Mainly Due to Timing of Real Estate Sales; Building Construction Conditions Strong and No Apparent Middle East Impact

Research evidence excerpt

F3/27 1Q Results: Below Consensus Mainly Due to Timing of Real Estate Sales; Building Construction Conditions Strong and No Apparent Middle East Impact

Update

July 30, 2026 09:08 AM GMT

Morgan Stanley MUFG Securities Co., Ltd.+MShimizu (1803) | Japan Ryo Yagi

Equity Analyst

F3/27 1Q Results: Below Ryo.Yagi@morganstanleymufg.com +81 3 6836-8938

Consensus Mainly Due to

Timing of Real Estate Sales;

Shimizu (1803.T, 1803 JT)

Construction | Japan

Building Construction Stock Rating Equal-weight

Industry View Attractive

Price target ¥2,900Conditions Strong and No Shr price, close (Jul 30, 2026) ¥2,318

Mkt cap, curr, basic (bn) ¥1,574.0

Apparent Middle East Impact Avg daily trading value (bn) ¥8.5

AlphaSignals Earnings Reaction

Unchanged Modest shortfall Largely unchanged

Impact to our thesis Financial results versus consensus Direction of next 12-month

consensus EPS

Source: Company data, Morgan Stanley Research

Key Takeaways

1Q OP missed the consensus and our forecast.

Downside vs. our forecast was owing to weaker-than-assumed real estate GP

(due to timing of sales) and greater SG&A than expected, among other factors.

Shimizu has hiked its RP and NP guidance to reflect negative goodwill.

It also announced a ¥10bn share buyback.

Middle East impact: Building construction demand remains firm, and there has been

no impact on the procurement of materials. Progress in sourcing alternative

materials also serves to ease procurement concerns compared to 4Q. In addition,

Shimizu is managing to pass-through cost increases, including those stemming from

the Middle East situation, on both existing projects and new projects.

Order-stage profitability rose YoY in 1Q for both building construction and civil

engineering. The domestic building construction margin was 10.8% in 1Q (vs. 9.1% in