Fed keeps rates on hold, 30y US BE jumps most since 2024: Our daily analytics package and commentary on global inflation markets.

Research evidence excerpt

Fed keeps rates on hold, 30y US BE jumps most since 2024: Our daily analytics package and commentary on global inflation markets.

FICC Research

Interest Rates

30 July 2026

Inflation-Linked Daily

Fed keeps rates on hold, 30y US BE

jumps most since 2024

Our daily analytics package and commentary on global Jonathan Hill, CFA

inflation markets. +1 212 526 3497

jonathan.hill@barclays.com

BCI, US

US CPI: The FOMC kept policy rates unchanged at the July meeting, but markets interpreted the

Apostolos Apostolou

mix of policy signals as a dovish hold, with 5y real yields and breakevens rallying sharply and +1 212 526 5051

the curve steepening. 5y5y inflation swaps rose back over 2.40%, while 30y breakevens spiked apostolos.apostolou@barclays.com

5bp, the single largest daily increase since the 2024 presidential election. We continue to BCI, US

recommend longs in 5y5y CPI swaps. Tomorrow is month-end, and Bloomberg projects the

duration extension of the 1-30y Series-L TIPS index to be 0.20y, in line with our projection.

EUR HICPx and FRCPIx: The euro area inflation market was in wait-and-see mode on

Wednesday ahead of the FOMC meeting after the close. Before the Fed, new threats from

President Trump against Iran drove a jump in energy prices that contributed to a bull-flattening

of the energy curve. Data today include preliminary July inflation readings from Spain and

Germany, followed by the equivalent from France, Italy and the euro area aggregate

tomorrow. Tomorrow is month-end and Bloomberg projects the duration extension of the euro

area government linker index to be 0.36y.

UK RPI: Today brings the July MPC meeting, and Barclays economists expect the MPC to hold

Bank Rate at 3.75%, with a minority group preferring to hike 25bp. They also note that "a