Weak Hydro Weighs on 2Q26 Results

Research evidence excerpt

Weak Hydro Weighs on 2Q26 Results

Update

July 30, 2026 07:20 AM GMT

Morgan Stanley & Co. International plc+MVerbund AG | Europe Robert Pulleyn

Equity Analyst and Commodity Strategist

Weak Hydro Weighs on 2Q26 Robert.Pulleyn@morganstanley.comArthur Descazeaud +44 20 7425-4388

Research Associate

Arthur.Descazeaud1@morganstanley.com +44 20 7677-1282

Results Morgan Stanley Europe S.E., Paris Branch+

Arthur Sitbon, CFA

Equity Analyst

AlphaSignals Earnings Reaction Arthur.Sitbon@morganstanley.com +33 1 42 90 71-03

Unchanged Meaningful shortfall Largely unchanged

Morgan Stanley & Co. International plc+

Impact to our thesis Financial results versus consensus Direction of next 12-month

consensus EPS Sarah E Lester, CFA

Source: Company data, Morgan Stanley Research

Sarah.Lester@morganstanley.com +44 20 7425-0551

Marina Fuentes Juan

Key Takeaways Research Associate

Marina.Fuentes.Juan@morganstanley.com +44 20 7425-2268

We expect a modest negative market reaction to 2Q results & Guidance update

with weak hydrology well known by the market. Verbund AG (VERB.VI, VER AV)

Utilities | Austria

2Q EBITDA is a 15% miss and headline Net Income 9% below, albeit inc a one off

Stock Rating Underweight

impairment. Industry View Attractive

Price target €54.00

Guidance revised only marginally lower implies limited Consensus EPS changes Shr price, close (Jul 29, 2026) €58.90

52-Week Range €70.20-54.25

ahead Mkt cap, curr (mn) €20,463

2Q26 results below expectations: Group EBITDA €527m was 15% lighter vs

consensus €618m (MSe €636m) and Net Income of €268m was 9% lower than

street (2% below MSe €290m).

Divisional EBITDA: Hydro €357m was 24% below consensus with hydro coefficient

of 0.68 for 1H26 and 0.63 for 2Q26 and despite weak hydrology being largely

known by market.