Qualcomm Inc (QCOM.O): Lowering Estimates and TP; Maintain Neutral

Research evidence excerpt

Qualcomm Inc (QCOM.O): Lowering Estimates and TP; Maintain Neutral

Qualcomm Inc (QCOM.O)

30 July 2026 Citi Research

QCOM F3Q26 Earnings Review

restrictions on its Chinese data center sales. They have PO's already for data center

products and have started production.

Handset TAM. QCOM expects the handset TAM to be down low teens YoY from

2025 to 2026, with the impact weighted towards the lower tier handset market.

QCT android revenue is expected to be down 20% YoY with an EPS impact of more

than $1.50, which is expected to be a tailwind long term as conditions stabilize.

Android. Android sales in F26 were $16.5B. It could be flat to down in F27. Non

handsets ~$21 to $22 billion with $5 billion in DC, 8 billion IOT, $8 billion Auto.

QCT in December to grow slightly QoQ, and March to grow QoQ for QCT as well.

Pricing. QCOM is taking pricing action broadly across different end markets. This is

no different from what QCOM peers have done. The magnitude of these price

increases is in the double digit range and is a pass through of the input cost and

wafer price increases. This is small relative to the memory BOM increases and

QCOM continues to expect that Chinese handsets bottomed in F3Q26.

Opex. Opex moving forward will reflect the Alphawave and Modular acquisitions,

and they expect to see some growth in Opex. The company is investing in data

center to execute on their CPU and accelerator roadmap. Citi is modeling $2.7B in

September, $2.8B in December, $2.9B in March, and keeping at this level in June

and September next year.

Automotive. QCT automotive sales were a record $1.59B in F3Q26 and expects

another record in F4Q26. The company raised their automotive outlook to an

annualized run rate of $7B exiting F26 (versus $6B previously).

Supply.