H2 acceleration levers still in place

Research evidence excerpt

H2 acceleration levers still in place

Barclays | Danone

and starts leading trends rather than always being a fast follower. This is the definition of the

category champion shaping markets, which is what they aspire to be.

Looking ahead, we believe growth is set to accelerate in H2. Much of the drag that weighed

on H1 should begin to ease, with the IMF recall impact progressively fading with shelf presence

returned to normal already in Europe and an educational campaign expected to be launched in

Q3 to reinforce confidence in Danone's products. In China, we believe Specialized Nutrition

performance was strong but masked by the weaker performance in Waters. China delivered

+3.6% LFL growth overall and, assuming Mizone was down around 10% quarter, we estimate

this would imply IMF growth in the mid to high single digit range. Elsewhere, we expect North

America EDP to continue its gradual recovery as additional capacity comes online and

comparatives ease from Q3 onwards, while Medical Nutrition should remain a meaningful

contributor, supported by strong underlying demand and the inclusion of Kate Farms in the LFL

perimeter from Q3. Combined with continued momentum across Emerging Markets, we see a

credible pathway towards stronger growth in the second half.

North America EDP turnaround: getting close or still a long

way to go?

North America accelerated to +2.6% LFL in Q2 (vs 1.5% in Q1), supported by High Protein,

stabilization in creamers and accelerating Medical Nutrition growth. The key debate remains

the pace of the EDP turnaround and when additional yogurt capacity will materially

change the trajectory of the US business. The message that capacity will come through

progressively is frustrating, but the reality is that bringing new capacity online and fully ramping