Few Definitive Answers from 2Q As We Wait for Overhangs to Play Out

Research evidence excerpt

Few Definitive Answers from 2Q As We Wait for Overhangs to Play Out

ey Research, Morgan Stanley Institutional Equities Division. The probabilities of our Bull,

Base, and Bear case scenarios playing out were estimated with implied volatility data from the options market as of 29

Jul 2026. All figures are approximate risk-neutral probabilities of the stock reaching beyond the scenario price in either

three-months’ or one-years’ time. View explanation of Options Probabilities methodology here

BULL CASE $225.00 BASE CASE $91.00 BEAR CASE $65.00

21x Bull Case on NTM EPS 17x Normalized EPS 12.0x Bear Case on NTM EPS

The upcycle begins. Demand snaps back in Supply catalysts tip the scales. The demand Status quo continues. The cycle continues

mid-2026 and freight supply continues to side remains tepid tracking normal where it left off ending 2025, the freight

tighten at the same time, driving the robust seasonality while the supply side continues supply side catalysts fizzle out and earnings

upcycle we have been waiting for. NAST to tighten and gradually pushes rate track normal seasonality from the end of

GMs improve as mgmt. takes advantage of upward. Spot rates improve as the year 2025. Forwarding net revs see more

spot strength and also reprices contracts progresses though cycle inflection dynamics material deterioration y/y than our base

quickly. Forwarding net revs stay higher than pressure GM, leading to slight GM case. Cost savings laid out by mgmt. do not

expected helped by wallet share gains. Cost deterioration y/y. However, this is partially fully materialize and op. margins face

actions come in ahead of expectations. offset by cost improvements, resulting in pressure y/y.

OM improvement y/y. EBIT is up L-MSD%

due to cost initiatives as total revs see more