2Q26 Results: Need to See Stabilization in Growth to Get Rewarded for Traction in Exposure Management

Research evidence excerpt

2Q26 Results: Need to See Stabilization in Growth to Get Rewarded for Traction in Exposure Management

UpdateM

RiskRisk RewardReward– Tenable- TenableHoldings Inc (TENB.O)Holdings Inc (TENB.O)

Category Leader & Share Gainer In Slowing Market With Limited Margin Upside

PRICE TARGET $35.00 EQUAL-WEIGHT THESIS

13x CY27e FCF of $296M, adding back ~$245M of net cash. At $35/share, our PT implies ~4x Despite being the clear category leader

EV/CY27 Sales, or ~0.6x adjusted for growth, a inline with SMid Cap median. within its core Vulnerability Management

market, we view Tenable as fairly valued and

$35.34 see downside risk to forward FCF estimates

Consensus Price Target Distribution $23.55 $50.00 - making us Equal-Weight shares. This is

MS PT driven by 1) pricing pressure in their core

Source: Refinitiv, Morgan Stanley Research Mean Morgan Stanley Estimates Vulnerability Management market, 2)

significant exposure to the US public sector,

which could be at risk under the new

RISK REWARD CHART administration, and 3) limited upside to

margins near term due to pricing pressure

and the need for increased investments to

USD drive growth.

$60.00$60.00(+90.60%)$60.00(+90.60%)(+90.60%)

60 Consensus Rating Distribution

42% Overweight

45 58% Equal-weight

0% Underweight

$35.00$35.00(+11.18%)$35.00(+11.18%)(+11.18%) MS Rating $31.48$31.48$31.48

Source: Refinitiv, Morgan Stanley Research

$17.00$17.00(-46.00%)$17.00(-46.00%)(-46.00%) Risk Reward Themes

Secular Growth: Negative

0 Self-help: Positive

JUL '25 JAN '26 JUL '26 JUL '27

View descriptions of Risk Rewards Themes here

Key: Historical Stock Performance Current Stock Price Price Target

BULL CASE $60.00 BASE CASE $35.00 BEAR CASE $17.00

20x Bull Case 2027e FCF of $353M 13x Base Case 2027e FCF of $296M 6x Bear Case 2027e FCF of $304M