Strong 2Q Beat and Product Velocity; July NNA Slows

Research evidence excerpt

Strong 2Q Beat and Product Velocity; July NNA Slows

Idea

July 30, 2026 04:01 AM GMT

Morgan Stanley & Co. LLCMRobinhood Markets, Inc. | North America Michael J. Cyprys, CFA, CPA

Equity Analyst

Strong 2Q Beat and Product Michael.Cyprys@morganstanley.comBarron Thomas +1 212 761-7619

Research Associate

Barron.Thomas@morganstanley.com +1 212 761-2624

Velocity; July NNA Slows

Robinhood Markets, Inc. (HOOD.O, HOOD US)

Brokers, Asset Managers & Exchanges | United States of

AlphaSignals Earnings Reaction America

Strengthens our thesis Meaningful upside Modest revision higher Stock Rating Equal-weight

Impact to our thesis Financial results versus consensus Direction of next 12-month Industry View In-Line

consensus EPS Price target $124.00

Shr price, close (Jul 29, 2026) $89.84

Source: Company data, Morgan Stanley Research Mkt cap, curr (mm) $82,394

52-Week Range $153.86-63.52

HOOD delivered a broad 2Q beat with accelerating customer, Fiscal Year Ending 12/25 12/26e 12/27e 12/28e

asset and revenue growth. July trends moderated, with softer EPS ($)** 2.06 1.78 2.47 2.86

NNA and trading activity likely limiting near-term estimate PriorP/E EPS ($)** 54.9- 50.5- 36.4- 31.4-

revisions. Still, strong product velocity and expense discipline EPS ($)§ 2.08 1.95 2.72 3.39 Div yld (%) - - - -

reinforce the long-term earnings story. Unless otherwise noted, all metrics are based on Morgan Stanley ModelWare

framework

** = Based on consensus methodology

Key Takeaways §e == MorganConsensusStanleydataResearchis providedestimatesby Refinitiv Estimates

July trading trends imply 3Q transaction revenue 7% / 5% above MSe / cons, Quarterly EPS ($)

2026e 2026e 2027e 2027e

though ~$4b of NNA points to a ~40% shortfall vs expectations. Quarter 2025 Prior Current Prior Current

Q1 0.37 - 0.38a - 0.55