Antero Midstream Corp. (AM): First Take: 2Q26 Soft but 2026 Guide Unchanged; Veolia Proceeds and New Project in Focus

Research evidence excerpt

Antero Midstream Corp. (AM): First Take: 2Q26 Soft but 2026 Guide Unchanged; Veolia Proceeds and New Project in Focus

Goldman Sachs Antero Midstream Corp. (AM)

GSe of $3m. Well completions were higher at 21 vs. GSe of 16, but freshwater

volumes came in -5% below our estimate and were down -1% QoQ. Margins (higher

opex) were also worse than expected.

n JV Assets were softer than GS: Distributions from JV investments came in at $35m,

lower vs. GSe of $37m. Processing and fractionation volumes were -2/0% vs GSe and

were respectively down/flat QoQ.

AM’s FY26 guidance was unchanged. AM did not update its 2026 EBITDA guidance of

$1,190-1,240m, which compares to GSe and FactSet consensus of $1,222m/$1,223m,

respectively. Capex guidance of $190-220m was unchanged, which compares to GSe of

$196m. AM’s guidance of $330-390m in adj. FCF after dividends was also unchanged,

largely in line at the midpoint vs. GSe of $364m after adjusting for M&A activity. Sponsor

Antero Resources (AR) increased its 2026 production outlook to 4.15-4.2 bcfe/d from

~4.10 bcfe/d in the release following an acquisition of a production site in West Virginia.

On projects, AM announced and has commenced construction on its East Side Express

project, the company’s first bi-directional, intrastate regional pipeline, to connect dry

gas growth in West Virginia to regional demand centers - we will look for more color on

the call on details of in-basin demand across AM’s footprint.

FCF was just lower than expected alongside softer buybacks. FCF of $186m was

lower vs. GSe of $189m driven by softer than expected EBITDA and changes in working

capital. Buybacks (pre-announced two weeks ago) of $8m came in softer than GSe of

$40m and the 2025 pace of ~$34m/quarter, and we expect commentary to focus on the