Oil Comment: Global Refinery Runs at Post-Pandemic Seasonal Lows

Research evidence excerpt

Oil Comment: Global Refinery Runs at Post-Pandemic Seasonal Lows

Commodities Research

29 July 2026 | 6:51PM EDT

n New weekly refinery runs nowcast. We introduce our global refinery runs Yulia Zhestkova Grigsby

+1(646)446-3905 |

nowcast and estimate a 6.5mb/d year-over-year decline in global runs this week yulia.grigsby@gs.com

Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC

(Exhibit 1). Although global runs edged up from April lows, our nowcast suggests

Filippo Cuscito

that average July runs reached the lowest seasonal level since Covid, given +44(20)7051-9073 | filippo.cuscito@gs.com

continuing attacks on refineries in the Middle East and Russia and low China runs Goldman Sachs International

(Exhibit 2). Elevated geopolitical uncertainty in the Middle East and likely Daan Struyven +1(212)357-4172 |

persistent outages in Russia may continue to weigh on refinery runs and the daan.struyven@gs.comGoldman Sachs & Co. LLC

supply of refined products for longer, particularly tightening diesel markets.

n Non-OECD runs: From growth to bust. Non-OECD refineries have nearly fully

driven global runs growth in 2023-2025, growing at an average year-over-year

(YoY) pace of 0.85mb/d. However, non-OECD refinery runs have been declining

since February, with our nowcast pointing to a 7.0mb/d year-over-year drop

(Exhibit 3, left panel).

o The Middle East, Russia, and China drove the recent decline in runs and

together nearly fully account for the weakness in non-OECD refinery runs

(Exhibit 3, right panel). While China’s refinery utilization rate increased over

the last two weeks on a pick-up in state-owned refinery runs, utilization

remains below its typical seasonal range, with a lack of sustainable crude

imports for independent refineries and potentially weak demand as key

constraints on further recovery.